Week 4, Trade 4: Long $WIF
Trading mindset - things you can control, macro & crypto uncertainty = opportunities
Week 4, Lesson 4
"God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference"- Anonymus
We are into the Week 4 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading on.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Hashtalk Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
Portfolio Update - Open Trades
Markets are spooking. Too many unwanted events happening simultaneously.
The silver lining however was Powell’s FOMC guidance indicating a Sept rate cut. We’ve been talking about tit weekly non stop for last 3 months here in our 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
As always, you can track all our trades live for full transparency.
Trade 1: Long $SOL We had secured a profit of over $5,000 by closing 50% at $175 & $179 as discussed last week. Also, we moved rest of the SL at $180 which got hit yesterday. Now our SOL trade is completely closed in green and went perfectly according to plan, locking in a total profit of around $10,000. This strategic positioning helps us ride the wave while protecting our gains.
Trade 2: Long $BLAST This trade stopped out as $Blast continues to bleed below $0.013. Not a great trade in hindsight, but you learn and you move on. Thankfully, the sizing was not too much as conviction was low. A strong lesson here - when conviction is low, sizing should be low as well, with optimal SL. The question is - was this a bad idea? Not at all. If I keep it open, I know this will bounce back when Pacman announces something again. But I cannot continue to bleed on this and hence the SL that capped our risk at $2,500.
Trade 3: Long $MOTHER Last weekend, we hit our first take-profit target of $0.09 on $MOTHER, securing a profit of over $550 by closing 25% of the position. The current price of $MOTHER is around $0.049, making the reaming of our position in a loss of $840. We're watching this one closely as we would add more into this position once market stabilises a bit.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, or join our Telegram group for live updates and alpha as they happen. Let's continue to navigate the market together!
Trading Mindset
Things (Trades) That You Cannot Control
Each day, enter the trading pit with a sunny disposition. Roll up your sleeves, stay sharp, and keep your wits about you. Punch out at the end of the day, get some rest, positive mindset, focus, rationality, and do it all over again tomorrow.
This focus and clarity is even more important in the zany circus of crypto trading, where narratives change every second. I am not perfect. I've stumbled over my clown shoes more times than I’d care to admit. I call them “Crypto Blunders”. I write them down and I swear not to repeat them. But I seldom do. Being wrong is part of trading, and that’s perfectly dandy!
In the grand casino of trading, some days you'll hit the jackpot, and others you'll walk away with empty pockets. But somewhere between beginner's luck and the house always winning lies the realm where true trading prowess shines.
Focusing only on outcomes is like blaming the weather for your golf score—you're missing the point. The real trick is to separate the wheat from the chaff, the controllable from the uncontrollable. In trading, this means sharpening your mental toolkit and making decisions with a clear head, without losing your cool when the dice roll against you.
I used to get very annoyed and take wrong positions back in the day. Then I realised that there are world events that I cannot control, like what happened this week between Israel & Hamas/Iran. Now when I am wrong, and I lose money, I don’t even flinch. That’s just the popcorn in the trading carnival. And it’s my popcorn. What is most important now is to stick to my risk management plan. Like what we did with $SOL and $MOTHER trades. Just don’t sweat it. We got stopped out of $BLAST trades, courtesy of so much macro and geopolitical news in one week. But now that I know this news, I am going to take this into account for next few trades. Either by sizing, or better risk control or not trading at all sometimes.
Things That You Can Control?
In 2021-22, I was in perfect harmony with the market, making accurate calls like a symphony conductor, and so was everyone in that bullish market phase. But Thanks to some real black swans or I should say Ugly Heinas like Sam FTX, Luna and 3Ac, many traders lost their pants. Everyone’s profits and even principals were wiped off. I got saved, due to a mix of discipline, process (can control) and a lot of luck (can’t control).
Before that period, I randomly traded without a plan, and abandoned promising positions early out of sheer boredom or some random piece of news. I was overtrading. Instead of being focused and aggressive - myriad of small bets on half-baked ideas, leaking money daily like a bucket with a thousand tiny holes. And several degens are doing the same on random memecoins today without realising that losing 3-10 SOL on each trade everyday is 100-200 SOL in a month.
This is not being unlucky, this is bad trading, bad process, or a bad mindset. Cut all your risk and recalibrate. When you trade with a good mindset, you see each trade and each day as independent events with probabilistic outcomes. Each day, you show up, do your best without getting too high or too low, and invest your energy in the process, not the outcome. Each trade is a thoughtful execution, like a master chef following a trusted recipe to perfection. Some usual trading mistakes that you can control:
No clear process: Trading randomly without a clear strategy is like driving blindfolded.
Repeat Mistakes: Reacting to the same news repeatedly,
Overtrading & Over/under sizing: Making too many small, low-conviction bets, resulting in consistent losses.
Poor Discipline: Breaking risk management rules
Failure to Adapt: Not adjusting to a changing market regime
External Stress, Physical, Mental and Emotional Strain: Personal issues can severely impact trading performance. You need a crypto wife :). Fatigue, personal strife, and emotional distress can derail trading focus and effectiveness.
Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD
Powell’s guidance post FOMC makes it almost certain of a 25 bps rate cut in Sept FOMC
BoE cuts rates by 25 bps. EU and teh Swiss have already done so - marking the start of a new macro liquidity cycle
Inflation is under control while unemployment. numbers are getting revised and then re-revised to the upside, indicating slow growth. If we see any worse nos, markets will get spooked further and start talking about contraction. That won’t be nice.
The Bitcoin Conference in Nashville was a standout event in BTC’s history. Although Trump promised to establish a Bitcoin reserve if elected, it was Senator Cynthia Lummis who truly stole the spotlight by unveiling a bill to create a Bitcoin reserve
THE BAD
Kamala Harris has managed to bring back democrats back in the poll bounce with Trump leading just by 3 points now at 53% vs 47%. Nice come back Kamala
ETH ETF outflows continue thanks to Grayscale
Earnings in the US have been generally bad. Coupled with all the uncertainty, tech stocks have been relentlessly falling
Mt Gox and the US govt crypto sales are an overhang that are pressuring the crypto markets along with an uncertain macro and geopolitical environment
August is seasonally a ‘dump’ month. Go away in May and come back in Sept
THE UGLY
War like situation back in the mix with Israel / Hamas / Iran / Hezbollah all wanting revenge and all out war. This week is going to be nerve racking
BoJ rate hike and Japanese market carnage is top of my list. The unwinding of the carry trade is not just spooking TOPIX and YenUSD traders, but also reeling global stock markets
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
Week 4, Trade 4: Long $WIF
Now that our $SOL and $BLAST trade are completely closed, we are watching how $MOTHER behaves. We were lucky to book some profits at $0.09, and I am closely watching once $MOTHER hits $0.04. I will add some more position then. As for other clear narratives, $WIF under $2 looks very attractive from a Risk/Reward perspective.
Why Solana & Solana Memecoins?
Going back to our first trade of the chapter Long $SOL, we have been bullish on SOL from Day 1. If we quickly compare the Top 3 for the month of July, ETH is down by 7.1% to $3,200, BTC is almost flat up by 3% to $64,100 whereas SOL being the outlier is up by 15% to $160.
SOL has typically shown the most strength among the Top 3. Now if we look at the top performing coins of this year, it has mostly been Meme coins and many of them are on SOL.
If you want to read more about why we are bullish on $SOL & Solana Memecoins you can read more about it here in our previous articles:
Why $WIF?
$WIF has emerged as one of the largest memecoins of the season, nearing a market cap of $5 billion. Even during the market downturn in June and July, it maintained strong support at the $1.5 level. Here are several reasons why we remain bullish on $WIF:
Strong Community: $WIF has one of the strongest & most active community which pushed its market cap to almost $5B at its peak.
KOL Support: $WIF has garnered significant attention and support from KOLs)in the cryptocurrency space. Influencers such as Ansem have actively promoted the coin since its launch, helping to boost its visibility and popularity among investors.
On-Chain Activity: $WIF is also notable for its robust on-chain activity. It is one of the most traded memecoins, with over 97M transactions recorded on the blockchain. Additionally, the coin boasts a substantial number of holders, with over 172K unique addresses holding $WIF.
High Liquidity: It is one of the most liquid memecoins, making it easier for traders to buy and sell without large price fluctuations. It is alsos listed on major exchanges like Binance, ByBit, OKX, and many others.
Resilience: Despite market pullbacks, $WIF has demonstrated resilience by maintaining support levels and has show quick reversal from those levels.
Reliability: $WIF is highly relatable because everyone loves dogs, and a dog with a hat is a simple, charming concept that anyone can appreciate, even if they have no clue about blockchain technology.
Strong Price Action: $WIF has demonstrated strong price action, ranking 11th in total trading volume over the last 24 hours, with over $690M traded. As one of the first memecoins to surge this cycle, it has maintained solid support at $1.50 and rebounded swiftly from that level.
Hashtalk Crypto Trading Framework
Here is the link to Crypto Trading Framework and its template that you can follow live
$WIF- Technical Analysis & Trade Positioning
For the last 6 days it is going in downward trend so good chances of reversal because 8 day is generally a reversal according to Fibonacci Theory. $2.4 is key resistance if that breaks with volume then chances of breaking $3.2 increases drastically.
RSI has also fallen to 40 indicating a good zone to buy
Trade & Positioning
We took a position on $WIF at $1.845 for 5% of our starting capital, that is $5,000. The stop loss is at $1.40, which is near its earlier lows. And we are only risking max $1,200 there. That is, 1.2%. Our TP 1 is set at $2.5
Conclusion
The fourth trade of “The 52” is long $WIF
Entry Price- $1.845
Stop Loss- $1.40
Take Profit 1- $2.5
Take Profit 2- $2.9
Take Profit 3- $3.5
You can track all our trades here.
Now go grab a coffee and please DM for any questions. Keep in mind, this is NFA and DYOR.