Week 3, Trade 3: Long $MOTHER
Celebrity memecoins next sub wave of memecoins, Solana stays king of memecoins
Week 3, Lesson 3
“There is a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing.”
― Jesse Livermore
We are into the Week 3 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading on.
It’s going to be a year long journey. Tighten your seat belts and be ready to ride along. Let’s call it “The 52”.
For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Each week, I am going to pick one area in detail so that we have more than 52 trading related topics covered before we pause for rest. Most trades that we take will be medium (min 1 month) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Hashtalk Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
Week 3, Trade 3: Long $MOTHER
Quick Macro & Crypto View
In a dramatic turn of events, Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 race, throwing his support behind Kamala Harris. However, her nomination is still in limbo, requiring endorsements from other key players.
Meanwhile, China faces a seismic shift in its banking sector, with 40 banks vanishing last month, absorbed by larger institutions. With 3,800 small banks holding $7.5 trillion in assets—about 13% of the total banking system—this crisis threatens to destabilize the social fabric of China.
Over in Nashville, the Bitcoin conference is abuzz with speculation about a major crypto announcement from Trump this week. Bitcoin ($BTC) has already rocketed from $55K to $68K, though it's experiencing a minor pullback driven by several factors:
Disappointing earnings reports leading to stock market corrections
The “sell the news” phenomenon surrounding the ETH ETF, resulting in a significant sell-off during Asian trading hours
Continued selling pressure from the Mt. Gox settlement
Despite this market turbulence, Solana ($SOL) is displaying robust bullish momentum. After breaching the $180 mark this week, it has dipped back to around $165, currently trading at $170 as I write this. As we anticipated in our Macro & Crypto Weekly, the ETH ETF announcement was a “sell the news” event. However, much like the BTC ETF, ETH is poised to rebound as soon as we see favorable PCE numbers and improved earnings from tech giants like Microsoft and Apple. Until then, ETH will continue to exert downward pressure on the entire crypto market.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
Portfolio Update
Keeping the previous market insights in mind, let's dive into our portfolio update and the trade of the week. Remember, you can track all trades live here in full transparency.
Trade 1: Long $SOL
Last week, we adjusted our Take Profit (TP1) targets to $165 after $SOL reached $175. Following the ETF launch, we closed 25% of the position at $179.12, selling 55 $SOL for around $9,850. In hindsight, this was a prudent profit-booking move. Additionally, we set a Stop Loss (SL) for 25% of our $SOL position at $175, which was triggered today. Now, we are 50% out with a nice profit, and the remaining 50% is set at an SL of $165. This may or may not get hit, but we are comfortably holding this position.
Trade 2: Long $BLAST
This position is currently underwater, but it is relatively small. It's down 10%, translating to a loss of about $1,000. I am considering adding more to this position if the market stabilizes. I will provide an update next week, but you can keep track on the LIVE sheet. Our stop loss is set at $0.013, with a total risk of $2,500.
If you have any questions, ideas, or critiques, please DM me on Substack or Twitter, or join our Telegram group for live updates and alpha as it happens.
This Week’s Trade: Long $MOTHER
Let's embark on this week's trade, where we go long on $MOTHER. Stay tuned for detailed analysis and strategy
The ONLY Narrative this Bullrun - MEMECOINS
Memecoins have become the driving force behind the crypto market’s surge this year. While we caught fleeting glimpses of AI, Real-World Assets (RWA), and even gaming tokens making waves, nothing sticks to the minds of degens like a good old memecoin. These coins now capture over 14.34% of the market share in CoinGecko's Categories web traffic, and the total market cap of the memecoin industry has soared to an impressive $56.55 billion.
Even when Bitcoin ($BTC) recently plummeted to $55K and the crypto market was engulfed in Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), it was the memecoins that led the revival. Most impressive of all have been $SOL memecoins, which tie in perfectly with our Trade 1: Long $SOL. The memecoin phenomenon underscores the unique allure and staying power of these tokens in the crypto landscape, marking them as a pivotal narrative in this bull run.
1. Relatability
A successful meme needs to be easily understandable and enjoyable, even for those who know nothing about crypto or finance. The more relatable a meme is to the general public, the broader its appeal. For instance, $WIF is highly relatable because everyone loves dogs, and a dog with a hat is a simple, charming concept that anyone can appreciate, even if they have no clue about blockchain technology.
2. Virality
A meme must have the potential to go viral, often driven by current events or endorsements from influential figures. Factors that enhance visibility and popularity are crucial for a meme's widespread adoption. For example, $DOGE went viral largely due to Elon Musk’s consistent promotion, demonstrating how endorsements by influential figures can significantly boost a meme’s popularity.
3. Distribution
Effective distribution is essential. Poor handling of supply can cause a project to collapse, but a strong, active community presence on social media ensures sustained interest and trust in the meme. For example, $DOGE's virality was significantly bolstered by Elon Musk’s ongoing promotion, illustrating the importance of influential endorsements in maintaining a meme's popularity.
4. Extensibility
The ability of a meme to be adapted to various contexts increases its versatility and appeal. Memes that can be easily modified or ported to other themes have a higher chance of widespread use. For instance, the "hat stays on" concept with $WIF can be adapted to any character wearing a hat, while $MICHI’s cat meme can be personalized in various ways, making them versatile and engaging across different contexts.
What’s next for Memecoins?
Celebrity memecoins are a natural extension of the attention economy. Earlier this year, these coins were all the rage, but only a few managed to deliver real gains to their communities. Celebrities are starting to jump in and there would be more attention, here is the list of the all the celebrities coins in the market:
Now coins like $MOTHER and $DADDY TATE focus on building robust communities are poised for a resurgence as they are setting the stage for the next growth phase.
Celebrity memecoins have an inherent advantage as they already meet several key success criteria:
Relatability: These coins are naturally relatable due to their association with well-known celebrities. Just like people relate to a famous actor or musician, they can easily relate to a coin linked to their favorite star.
Virality: Celebrities can effortlessly market their tokens, enhancing the potential for widespread popularity. Their established fan bases act as a ready-made audience, primed to propel the coin into the viral stratosphere.
Distribution and Extensibility: With top-tier teams, these projects ensure effective distribution and maintain relevance through strategic partnerships and active social media presence. The celebrity's influence guarantees that the coin stays in the public eye, while strategic marketing and community engagement ensure sustained interest and trust.
As these celebrity-backed memecoins leverage their unique advantages, they are set to drive significant growth and engagement within their communities. By capitalizing on the inherent popularity and influence of celebrities, these memecoins can navigate the crypto market with a built-in head start, promising exciting developments in the near future.
Why $Mother?
The Celebrity Meta is Catching Up: Iggy’s First-Mover Advantage
Iggy has taken the lead with a first-mover advantage in the celebrity memecoin meta.
Iggy is incredibly active and operates like a pro-crypto Key Opinion Leader (KOL). She never gives up on $MOTHER and regularly posts about crypto and her coin on Twitter. With over 10 tweets daily related to crypto and $MOTHER, she is tirelessly working to grow her crypto community.
Relatability: Iggy’s connection with her fans makes $MOTHER naturally relatable. People are drawn to her genuine engagement and dedication, making it easier for them to embrace the coin.
Virality: Iggy's consistent and enthusiastic promotion ensures that $MOTHER maintains a high level of visibility. Her posts create buzz and excitement, driving widespread popularity.
Distribution and Extensibility: Iggy's proactive approach and relentless social media activity ensure effective distribution and relevance. By continuously engaging with her community and maintaining a robust online presence, she guarantees sustained interest and trust in $MOTHER.
As Iggy leverages her first-mover advantage and continues to engage her audience, $MOTHER is well-positioned to capitalize on the celebrity memecoin trend. Her dedication and proactive strategies set a strong foundation for growth and success in the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Strategic Partnerships: They are also partnering with other projects and communities to grow their community organically. By collaborating with like-minded projects, they are expanding their reach and solidifying their position in the market. These partnerships foster mutual growth and create a more vibrant and engaged community.
$MOTHER has shown strong price action, rebounding 50% last weekend, positioning itself as the first major memecoin to achieve such a significant recovery. As the original celebrity memecoin, it has the potential to reach an all-time high (ATH) of $250M, representing a 3-4x increase from current levels.
We are setting our sights on a target price of $0.21. In the current market, not even popular coins like $PEPE or $WIF are poised to match this potential growth.
The primary risk lies in the market cap potentially dropping back to $30-40M if the market takes a downturn. However, this dip could present an excellent buying opportunity. To manage this risk, we are allocating only 5% of our spot holdings, equating to $5,000, to this investment.Risk is if the market cap goes back to $30/$40M if the market dumps. But that would be a good buying opportunity. Hence we are risking only 5% spot here that is $5,000
This is our one of the short to medium term trade on meme coin, hence we were able to share with you. We share a lot more short term meme coin plays in our TG chat so join here for more such calls.
Technical Analysis
Given that $MOTHER is a new coin with limited historical data, our technical analysis relies heavily on price movement strategy and volume-activity from traders and investors.
$MOTHER reached its ATH of $0.024 within 10 days from the launch. This level appears to be the second resistance. Should this resistance be broken, the coin could experience an unpredictable upside potential toward s$500mn market cap.
Over the past month, $MOTHER has been consolidating within a stable range on the daily chart, with $0.025 serving as a robust support level. This pattern suggests that a significant upward price movement is on the horizon.
The recent push in Solana & Solana memes has propelled the token from the lows of $0.025 to $0.08 and there is still a lot more room for gorwth. Currently $Mother is trading at $0.06
Hashtalk Crypto Trading Framework
Here is the link to Crypto Trading Framework and its template that you can follow live
Trade & Positioning
Our entry on $Mother is at 0.0612 for 5% of our starting capital, that is $5,000. The stop loss is at $0.025, which is near its earlier lows. Market would have to behave very erratically to touch that lows. And we are only risking max $3,000 there. That is, 3%. However, I intend to buy another $5,000 of $Mother if it dips to $0.045. I intend to but will have to see markets as well.
My TP1 is at $0.09 because that was the first resistance level of the token recently.
Conclusion
The third trade of “The 52” is buying spot on $MOTHER at $0.061, with a stop loss set at $0.025 and a first take profit targets at:
Take Profit 1 $0.09
Take Profit 2 $0.15
Take Profit 3 $0.21
The trade size would be of $5,000 with a maximum loss of $3,000. You can track all our trades here.
Now go grab a coffee and please DM for any questions. Keep in mind, this is NFA and DYOR.