Week 41, Trade 41 : $BTC OPTION STRATEGY
📈 Week 41, Lesson 41
"Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand."
We are into Week 41 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TRADING & INVESTING
One of the most important lessons for anyone in the financial markets is understanding the difference between trading and investing. While both involve buying and selling assets to generate profit, the mindset, time horizon, risk tolerance, and strategies behind them are fundamentally different. Confusing the two can lead to poor decisions, missed opportunities, and unnecessary losses.
Trading focuses on short- to medium-term price movements, often using technical analysis, tight risk control, and quick execution. Traders might hold positions for minutes, hours, or days, aiming to profit from volatility. Investing, on the other hand, is long-term and based on fundamentals—buying quality assets and holding them for months or years, trusting in their growth over time. Problems arise when traders hold onto a losing position “like an investor” or when investors panic-sell like short-term traders.
Key Differences Between Trading and Investing:
Knowing whether you're trading or investing—and acting accordingly—is essential for consistency and success. Align your strategy with your time horizon, tools, and goals. Don’t let short-term noise disrupt long-term plans, and don’t let long-term hope blind you to short-term risks.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Crypto boom: Bitcoin surged to fresh all-time highs (~$112K), with Ethereum and Solana each jumping ~4% amid inflows into crypto ETFs.
Asia strength: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng hit a two-month high (23,828) on better China growth forecasts and tech/EV stock gains.
Australia rallied: ASX 200 jumped ~0.5% to a 3-month peak after the RBA cut rates, signaling easier global financial conditions.
THE BAD:
Eurozone slowdown: Germany’s flash composite PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.6 (contraction), the first slump of 2025.
UK inflation surprise: April CPI printed hotter than expected, making the BoE’s planned rate cuts less certain.
Japan setback: Nikkei fell ~0.6% to 37,299 as the Yen strengthened and export growth slowed for the second month.
THE WORSE:
Geopolitical shock: North Korea confirmed it has sent troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine – a dangerous escalation that broadens the conflict.
U.S. fiscal risk: Congress passed a massive “tax‑and‑spend” bill that the CBO says adds ~$3.8 trillion to federal debt, stoking bond-market angst.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 41, Trade 41 : BUY & SELL $BTC OPTIONS
In recent weeks, global markets have demonstrated resilience, rallying despite a backdrop of challenging economic indicators. This optimism has been fuelled by hopes for positive developments, such as potential ceasefires in global conflicts and anticipated monetary policy easing. However, emerging geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. trade policies, are introducing new layers of uncertainty.
President Donald Trump's recent announcement of a proposed 50% tariff on European Union imports, effective June 1, has reignited trade tensions and unsettled global markets . Additionally, threats of tariffs on major corporations like Apple have further exacerbated investor concerns. These developments suggest a potential shift from the current bullish sentiment to a more cautious market stance. While the immediate impact has been a market pullback, the longer-term implications could include prolonged periods of consolidation or even downturns if trade uncertainties persist.
Investors should remain vigilant, closely monitoring geopolitical developments and adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Diversification and a focus on assets with strong fundamentals may provide some insulation against potential market volatility stemming from these uncertainties.
BTC Range Trade Setup – June 27 Expiry
Sell 1 BTC $130K Call @ $1,300 – Fading an extreme upside breakout; strong resistance expected near ATHs.
Buy 1 BTC $95K Put @ $1,150 – A directional hedge to profit from any downside retracement
Net Debit: $150
This trade reflects a neutral stance through late June, capping potential gains at $130K while limiting downside below $95K—all at no cost.
It's not a bet on breakout headlines, but a tactical response to the market’s current indecision. Whether the market pulls back or moves sideways, this portfolio is structured to benefit from either scenario with clearly defined risk.
💡 CONCLUSION
The market landscape has shifted dramatically this week, with escalating trade tensions introducing heightened volatility. Former President Donald Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on European Union imports, effective June 1, and a 25% tariff on Apple products not manufactured in the U.S., has unsettled investors. These developments have led to significant market reactions, including a drop in major indices and a decline in Apple's stock price.
Given this environment, our current trading positions are strategically aligned to navigate the increased uncertainty:
Strategic Trade Positions:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Trade Details: Sell 1 BTC $130K Call @ $1,300; Buy 1 BTC $95K Put @ $1,150.
Net Debit: $150.
Rationale: This trade reflects a neutral stance through late June, capping potential gains at $130K while limiting downside below $95K—all at no cost.
These positions are designed to capitalize on the current market indecision, allowing for flexibility as new information emerges. We remain vigilant, ready to adjust our strategies in response to further developments in trade policies and macroeconomic indicators.
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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