Week 40, Trade 40 : BUY & SELL $BTC OPTIONS
📈 Week 40, Lesson 40
“Losers average losers.” – Paul Tudor Jones
We are into Week 40 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
YOUR JOB IS NOT TO PREDICT- IT’S TO REACT
Many traders fall into the trap of trying to predict the market. But the most consistent traders aren’t prophets—they’re reactors. They wait for confirmation, trade based on price action, and let the market show its hand before making a move.
Why it matters:
Prediction feeds ego. Reaction builds discipline. The market doesn’t owe you clarity—your edge comes from managing risk and responding with a clear plan.
Focus on setups, not opinions.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Let the market lead, and you follow with precision.
You're not in the prediction business. You're in the probability business. Reacting rather than predicting also helps you stay emotionally neutral. When you let go of the need to be right, you're more likely to follow your rules and stick to your risk management strategy. Predictions often create attachment to a specific outcome, which can cloud judgment and lead to holding onto losing trades far longer than necessary. In contrast, reacting to real-time price behavior keeps you flexible and focused on execution over ego.
This mindset shift doesn't mean trading blindly—it means planning meticulously, then waiting for the market to trigger your plan. Whether it's a breakout, a moving average crossover, or a volume spike, your job is to act when the conditions are right, not when your gut tells you something "feels" right. Over time, this approach builds consistency, reduces drawdowns, and gives your edge the room it needs to play out.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Stocks climbed on soft inflation & trade truce – U.S. indexes pushed higher as inflation eased and a U.S.–China tariff pause fueled risk appetite. Nasdaq led, up 1.6%, powered by tech names like Nvidia and Tesla.
Crypto stayed strong – Bitcoin held above $100K after briefly topping $105K. Ethereum and other majors followed, keeping total crypto market cap above $3.2T for most of the week.
THE BAD:
Asia cooled off – Japan’s Topix ended its 13-day winning streak, while the broader STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 in Europe slipped ~0.2%. Dow lagged behind Nasdaq, with cyclicals under pressure.
Ukraine peace stalls again – Peace talks in Turkey fell flat as Putin refused to meet Zelensky. No ceasefire in sight keeps the war as a long-term drag on global sentiment.
THE WORSE:
Middle East tensions escalated – Israeli strikes killed dozens in Gaza; ceasefire talks faltered. The rising civilian toll spiked geopolitical risk and could rattle safe-haven flows.
Surprise Syria sanctions move – Trump abruptly lifted sanctions on Syria, creating policy confusion and fresh instability in an already tense region. Energy markets are on alert.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 40, Trade 40 : BUY & SELL $BTC OPTIONS
After a strong rally in April fuelled by positive macro headlines and trade optimism, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have stalled near key resistance levels. Price action has gone flat, volatility is compressing, and momentum indicators are beginning to diverge. The excitement has cooled, and we’re now entering what looks like a classic no-man’s-land—too extended to chase longs, yet not weak enough to short with conviction.
The market currently sits in a no-trade zone, hovering between critical levels. On the upside, a decisive breakout above $110K would be a strong bullish trigger and could invite momentum chasers. On the flip side, a breakdown below $95K may confirm the start of a broader short-term correction. Until either of those triggers play out, we see more value in structured trades than directional exposure.
Defined-Risk Range Trade for May 30 Expiry – BTC
With the market coiling in a tight range, we’re positioning for a neutral-to-slightly-bearish range-bound trade on BTC via a well-balanced options setup. Here’s our structured play:
Sell 1 BTC $110K Call @ $1,088: Fading the upside unless BTC breaks out cleanly above resistance
Buy 1 BTC $115K Call @ $455: A cheap hedge in case of a surprise breakout run
Sell 1 BTC $95K Put @ $425: Expressing confidence in support holding barring panic selling
Buy 1 BTC $90K Put @ $102: Protects against an unexpected flush to the downside
Net Profit: $957
This setup profits if BTC remains range-bound between $95K and $110K through May 30. It carries limited risk on both sides and capitalizes on the current lack of directional momentum. The key here is patience—if the market remains sideways, this trade pays. If either breakout zone is triggered, the hedge legs kick in to cap losses.
In environments like this, defined-risk range trades allow us to stay engaged without overcommitting in uncertain conditions.
💡 CONCLUSION
The current market environment remains caught in a tight range, with Bitcoin and broader crypto assets stuck between strong resistance and solid support. After April’s rally driven by macro tailwinds and trade optimism, momentum has stalled. Price action has flattened, volatility is compressing, and we’re seeing the classic signs of indecision. This sets the stage for either a breakout above $110K—which could trigger renewed bullish momentum—or a breakdown below $95K, potentially confirming a short-term correction.
Until the market chooses a direction, our strategy is focused on defined-risk, range-bound setups that capitalize on the low-volatility conditions without overcommitting. By using structured trades, we stay engaged while minimizing risk in an unpredictable tape. If either trigger level is breached, we’re prepared to pivot quickly and realign exposure.
Strategic Trade Setup – May 30 Expiry:
Sell: 1 BTC $110K Call @ $1,088
Buy: 1 BTC $115K Call @ $455
Sell: 1 BTC $95K Put @ $425
Buy: 1 BTC $90K Put @ $102
Net Profit Potential: $957
This setup allows us to take advantage of the current sideways market while being protected against both upside breakouts and downside flushes.
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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