Week 38, Trade 38 : LONG $JUP, $HYPE & $SOL
📈 Week 38, Lesson 38
"You don’t need to be brilliant, just a little smarter than the crowd and a lot more disciplined." – Peter Brandt
We are into Week 38 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE POWER OF KEEPING IT SIMPLE
In a world full of flashy indicators, complex strategies, and endless market noise, many traders fall into the trap of overcomplicating their approach. But the truth is, simplicity often wins in trading. The most effective strategies are usually the ones that are easy to understand, consistently repeatable, and focused on core market principles like trend, support/resistance, and price action.
Overloading your charts with indicators can create analysis paralysis—too much information leads to hesitation, second-guessing, and conflicting signals. A clean chart and a clear plan make it easier to spot quality setups and execute with confidence. Some of the world’s top traders rely on just a few tools, like moving averages, volume, or candlestick patterns, and still outperform because they focus on execution and consistency over complexity.
How to Simplify Your Trading Approach:
Use Fewer Indicators: Stick to 1–2 core tools that align with your strategy. Avoid clutter.
Focus on Price Action: Let price tell the story. Learn to read market structure and key levels.
Define a Simple Routine: Create a daily checklist: scan, plan, execute, journal.
Cut the Noise: Unfollow unnecessary signal groups or hype-driven communities.
Master One Strategy: Before jumping to the next shiny system, become an expert in one setup.
Complexity doesn’t make a trader smarter—clarity and discipline do. Keep your process lean, your charts clean, and your mindset sharp. Less truly is more in the markets.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
U.S. equities post strong gains - Trade rhetoric softened and earnings beat expectations; Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, led by AI and tech megacaps.
Easing trade tension headlines helped calm markets: Trump hinted at possible tariff cuts with China expressed willingness to talk if tariffs ease.
Central banks remain dovish globally: ECB cutting rates again and the BoJ signalling caution amid trade uncertainty, helping risk assets find footing.
THE BAD:
Consumer sentiment deteriorates sharply: University of Michigan data showed a 32% plunge in expectations since January, driven by inflation concerns and trade uncertainty.
Business activity slows across key economies: U.S. flash PMI’s showing weakest growth in 16 months and eurozone composite PMI falling to 50.1, barely in expansion territory.
Housing market struggles under pressure: March U.S. home sales plunging 5.9%, the worst since 2009, as elevated mortgage rates and affordability limits bite.
THE WORSE:
Middle East risks resurface - Israeli strikes in Lebanon testing the fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah, threatening to ignite broader instability in the region.
India–Pakistan tensions flare - a deadly Kashmir attack; diplomatic ties are cut, border posts closed, and airspace restrictions imposed, fueling regional geopolitical risk.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 38, Trade 38 : $JUP, $HYPE & $SOL
The crypto and equity markets are currently standing on a knife’s edge—poised between a potential breakout and a modest correction. From here, we could either enter a full-fledged bullish phase or see a short-term pullback before resuming upward momentum. Having positioned ourselves early at lower levels, we are now tactically booking profits, ready to re-enter when prices revisit key accumulation zones.
Looking ahead, the FOMC meeting next week is the major macro event on the radar. Markets have already priced in a 90%+ probability of no rate hike, and there’s growing optimism that we could see rate cuts as early as June. If Chair Powell’s tone leans even slightly dovish, it could serve as rocket fuel for risk assets—Bitcoin could very well surge toward $100K, rather than retracing back to the $85K zone.
However, despite the bullish possibilities, the path remains uncertain. Macro variables—from inflation data to unpredictable geopolitical developments (and yes, even Trump’s next tweet)—can quickly shift market sentiment. That’s why risk management is our priority.
For the full breakdown of our market strategy and thesis—past, present, and future—check out our in-depth quarterly report: The Rising Quarterly - Macro and Crypto.
TRADES OF THE WEEK
1. $BTC
Sell: Above $96,500
Re-accumulation Zone: $88,000 – $85,000
Bitcoin rallied into the high-$90Ks on renewed optimism, but we anticipate profit-taking to push prices downward toward strong support in the mid-$80Ks. By planning re-entry between $88K and $85K, we aim to capitalize on the next leg of BTC’s recovery once market sentiment stabilizes.
2. $SOL
Re-accumulation Zone: $135 – $125
Solana outperformed on the latest rally, peaking just above $150. A broader market pullback now looks likely to test SOL’s technical support near $135–$125. These levels offer an attractive entry point to re-establish long positions in anticipation of Solana’s next uptrend.
3. $HYPE
Sell: Above $20
Re-accumulation Zone: $15 – $12
$HYPE saw a strong surge into the $20 area, but meme-token volatility often leads to swift retracements. We’ve set limit orders to buy back between $15 and $12, capturing lower-risk entry points ahead of the token’s potential rebound.
4. $JUP
Buy Range: $0.35 – $0.42
JUP continues to show strong fundamentals with over $20B in monthly perp DEX volume and an annualized revenue of $200M+. Despite this, the token appears significantly undervalued. Accumulation at previous lows suggests a breakout could be imminent. We are looking to re-accumulate between $0.35 and $0.42—levels that align with historical support and provide a favorable risk/reward for the next recovery phase.
💡 CONCLUSION
The current market landscape presents a delicate balance between potential bullish momentum and the risk of a short-term correction. With the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 6-7, 2025, investors are closely monitoring for any signals that could influence market direction. While the probability of a rate hike remains low, the possibility of rate cuts in the near future adds a layer of complexity to market dynamics.
In this environment, our strategy emphasizes disciplined risk management. By booking profits at elevated levels and setting re-entry points at key support zones, we aim to capitalize on market fluctuations while mitigating potential downsides.
Strategic Trade Levels:
$BTC:
Profit booking: Above $96,500
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $88,000
$SOL:
Profit booking: Above $150
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $130
$HYPE:
Profit booking: Above $20
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $15
$JUP:
Buy Range: $0.35-$0.42
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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