Week 36, Trade 36 : $BTC, $SOL & $FARTCOIN
📈 Week 36, Lesson 36
"It is not the math that makes you money, it’s the mindset." – Steve Burns
We are into Week 36 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE VALUE OF BACKTESTING YOUR STRATEGY
Before risking real money in the markets, it's essential to backtest your trading strategy. Backtesting involves running your strategy on historical price data to see how it would have performed in the past. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, it provides valuable insights into your strategy’s reliability, win rate, drawdowns, and risk-reward profile.
Backtesting helps answer critical questions: Does your strategy perform better in trending or ranging markets? What’s the average win/loss ratio? How often does it hit stop-loss or target? This process allows you to identify weaknesses and fine-tune rules before committing capital. It also builds confidence, so when a drawdown happens, you know it’s part of the plan—not a reason to abandon your system emotionally.
Tips for Effective Backtesting:
Use Quality Historical Data – Ensure your data is accurate and spans various market conditions.
Be Objective – Don’t tweak the rules just to “make it work.” Your goal is to test consistency, not perfection.
Track Key Metrics – Win rate, risk-to-reward ratio, average drawdown, and max consecutive losses are vital.
Simulate Real Conditions – Include slippage, commissions, and realistic position sizes to get a true picture of performance.
Forward Test – Once backtested, run your strategy in a demo or small live account to validate performance in real time.
Backtesting turns guesswork into data-driven confidence. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it gives you the statistical foundation to trust your process—crucial in a game where consistency matters more than occasional wins.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
U.S. Tariff Pause Buys Time - The Trump administration’s decision to pause tariffs on most countries (except China) and exempt tech items like smartphones calmed investors and allowed for tactical repositioning.
Central Banks Start Easing - The ECB cut rates and signaled more to come. Japan and China remain dovish, and liquidity talk is starting to return as stimulus becomes more likely globally.
Consumers Still Swiping - Retail sales rose 1.4% in March—the biggest jump in 2 years—driven by autos, electronics, and pre-tariff buying. It shows consumers are still spending… for now.
THE BAD:
Market Shockwaves: The S&P 500 erased half of its historic 10%+ surge following the tariff pause announcement, dropping 5.4% the very next day, while Brent crude plunged 6.4% amid renewed tariff shocks.
Rising Cost Pressures: Inflation risk rises as tariffs (up to 74% for China) and complex trade measures drive up costs, intensifying global trade frictions.
THE WORSE:
Retaliation Spiral: Escalating retaliatory measures: China raises tariffs by 125%, U.S. may respond with 145%, risking an all-out trade war.
Global Recession Risks: Compounded tariffs could spark recession-like downturns, disrupting global supply chains and curbing consumer spending across markets.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 36, Trade 36 : $BTC, $SOL & $FARTCOIN
PROFIT BOOKING & RE-ACCUMULATE NEAR SUPPORT
In a dramatic turn of events, U.S. stock markets experienced one of their most significant single-day gains in history on April 9, 2025. The S&P 500 surged by 9.5%, marking its largest one-day gain since 2008, while the Nasdaq jumped over 8% . This rally was triggered by President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on most of the newly imposed tariffs, a move that temporarily alleviated investor concerns over escalating trade tensions.
However, this surge appears to be more of a relief rally than a sign of a sustained upward trend. The underlying macroeconomic environment remains fraught with uncertainty. The 90-day tariff pause is just that—a pause. There is no guarantee that tariffs won't be reinstated or even intensified once this period concludes. Moreover, the global economic outlook is clouded by concerns over inflation and potential recession, exacerbated by ongoing trade disputes .
Given these uncertainties, we view the recent market rally as an opportune moment to reduce exposure and realize gains. The lack of a clear, sustainable trend suggests that markets may experience further volatility. By selling into strength now, we position ourselves to re-enter the market at more favorable prices should another round of profit-taking occur. This strategy allows for greater flexibility and risk management in an unpredictable economic landscape.
With that momentum behind us, let’s turn to the key trade opportunities we’re tracking this week:
1. $BTC
Sell Target: $85,000
Reaccumulation Zone: $80,500 – $79,000
BTC is testing the $85,000 resistance level. BTC can witness profit booking and fall from here, this could accelerate losses toward long-term support near $79,000. By planning to re-enter at these levels, we position ourselves to benefit from potential rebounds as market sentiment improves.
2. $SOL
Sell Target: $135
Reaccumulation Zone: $118 – $110
SOL has given a good run up & it can witness fall due to broader market pullback below the $135 level. We are placing open order at near good support level.
3. $FARTCOIN
Sell Target: $0.85
Reaccumulation Zone: $0.50-$0.40
Fartcoin has experienced a significant surge recently. However, traders anticipate a potential pullback to around $0.60 or even $0.50. By planning to re-enter at these levels, we aim to capitalize on potential rebounds as market sentiment improves..
💡 CONCLUSION
The underlying macroeconomic environment remains fraught with uncertainties, including the potential reinstatement of tariffs and ongoing global economic concerns.
In light of these factors, we've strategically reduced exposure by selling into strength, positioning ourselves to re-enter the market at more favorable prices should another round of profit-taking occur. This approach allows for greater flexibility and risk management in an unpredictable economic landscape.
Strategic Trade Levels:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Sell Target: $85,000 & above
Reaccumulation Zone: $80,500 – $79,000
Solana (SOL):
Sell Target: $135
Reaccumulation Zone: $118 – $110
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN):
Sell Target: $0.85 & above
Reaccumulation Zone: $0.50 – $0.40
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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