Week 33, Trade 33 : LOCKING IN PROFITS & RE-ENTRY PLAN
📈 Week 33, Lesson 33
"An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand the questions." – John Templeton
We are into Week 33 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING TRADE PLAN
A trading plan is your blueprint for success, outlining the rules and strategies you’ll follow to make consistent, disciplined decisions. Without a structured plan, traders often fall into emotional traps—chasing trades, overleveraging, or exiting too early out of fear. A well-defined plan removes uncertainty and ensures that every trade is based on logic rather than impulse.
Your trading plan should cover key elements like entry and exit criteria, risk management rules, position sizing, and market conditions that influence your strategy. It should also account for psychological aspects, such as how you’ll handle losses or missed opportunities. Following a plan consistently leads to long-term profitability, while trading on emotion leads to inconsistency and losses.
Key Elements of a Strong Trading Plan:
Trading Strategy: Define whether you are a scalper, day trader, swing trader, or investor.
Entry & Exit Rules: Identify precise conditions for entering and exiting trades (e.g., breakouts, support/resistance bounces, indicator confirmations).
Risk Management: Set maximum risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of capital) and stop-loss levels.
Position Sizing: Determine how much to allocate per trade based on risk tolerance.
Emotional Control: Plan how you’ll handle losing streaks, avoid revenge trading, and stick to your strategy.
By developing and sticking to a trading plan, you remove randomness from your decisions and build consistency, confidence, and long-term success. A trader without a plan is just gambling.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Risk-On Tailwinds: Lower-than-expected CPI and easing yield pressures suggest that, despite softening demand, macro conditions could eventually support a rebound if rate cuts come in the next quarter.
Crypto Long-Term Promise: Bitcoin’s structural resilience amid market correction and cautious accumulation zones point to long-term upside, even if altcoins struggle now.
THE BAD:
Tariff & Austerity Pressure: Trump’s impending tariffs and aggressive DOGE budget cuts are likely to dampen consumer spending and disrupt supply chains, weighing on near-term growth.
Market Volatility & Mixed Signals: Stocks, bonds, and FX markets continue to wobble as investors face conflicting cues from softening demand, potential recession fears, and a cautious Fed.
THE WORSE:
Crypto and AI Turbulence: If Bitcoin falls below key support levels (around $70K) or if AI disappointments (e.g., Apple’s intelligence failures) intensify, the broader risk-on sentiment could collapse, deepening losses across assets.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 33, Trade 33 : Locking in Profits & Re-Entry Plan
As we look ahead to next week, April 2nd looms large with Trump set to announce a new round of tariffs. This could potentially trigger a shift in market sentiment, depending on whether the tariffs land on the extreme or more favorable end of the spectrum. Given the fragile state of the market, this moment could lead to volatility in either direction.
To capitalize on this, we've locked in some profits at current levels by selling a portion of our $BTC holdings at $88,340 and part of our $SOL position at $141.32. While keeping part of our positions open to ride any potential upside if the market continues to rally.
Additionally, this rally saw a remarkable resurgence in meme tokens, with $FARTCOIN emerging as one of the strongest runners. The sudden burst in meme-based assets reflects a speculative fevor that, while exciting in the short term, is typically unsustainable and prone to rapid reversals.
So if we see some downside we’re also setting some limit orders for $SOL, $BTC, and $FARTCOIN at strategically lower entry levels. This ensures we're well-positioned to buy back in if the market experiences a sharp downturn. The limit orders levels for are trade are as follows:
$SOL:
We have placed limit orders to re-accumulate $SOL at $120 and $130. These levels have been identified based on technical support zones and historical behavior during market corrections, positioning us for a strong rebound as investor sentiment stabilizes.
$BTC:
For $BTC, our re-entry targets are set at $80,000 and $78,000. These levels represent key support areas where we anticipate renewed buying interest. Re-entering at these lower prices will optimize our risk/reward profile for the next upward move.
$FARTCOIN:
Given the heightened volatility typical of meme-based assets, we have set entry orders at $0.30 and $0.35. These levels are derived from recent price action and Fartcoin's rapid fluctuation patterns, ensuring we capture potential gains on the rebound.
This re-entry strategy is designed to allow us to accumulate these assets at a discount, there by lowering our average cost basis and positioning ourselves to benefit from a subsequent recovery. Our approach reflects a disciplined, two-phased strategy: first, capturing profits during the rally, and second, re-establishing positions as the market corrects, ensuring a robust risk/reward profile in a dynamic market environment.
While the short-term market environment may be driven by external factors like Trump’s tariff announcement, we remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of these assets. This strategy ensures we stay nimble and well-prepared in a dynamic market landscape.
💡 CONCLUSION
As anticipated, the market's recent surge, fueled by renewed enthusiasm, has begun to wane, leading to a pullback across major cryptocurrencies. This correction aligns with our projections, providing us with the opportunity to re-enter positions at more favorable price points.
Re-Entry Strategy and Trading Levels:
$SOL: Limit orders to re-accumulate SOL at $120 and $130.
$BTC: Re-entry targets for BTC are set at $80,000, and $78,000.
$FARTCOIN: Given the heightened volatility of meme-based assets like Fartcoin, we have set entry orders at $0.35 and $0.30. These targets are based on recent price action and the coin's tendency for rapid fluctuations.
Our disciplined approach—securing profits during market highs and strategically re-entering during pullbacks—positions us to navigate the current market dynamics effectively. We will continue to monitor market conditions closely and adjust our strategies as necessary to optimize our portfolio performance.
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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