📈 Week 24, Lesson 24
“The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary.” – Alexander Elder
We are into Week 24 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.
We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
KNOWLEDGE > LUCK
Speculating with small capital might seem low-risk, but it often fosters poor habits like impulsive decisions and overreliance on luck. Research, however, provides clarity, equipping traders to evaluate opportunities, understand market trends, and mitigate risks. Especially for large investments, informed decisions based on data and analysis are far more sustainable than relying on gut feelings.
A research-driven approach focuses on long-term growth through tools like fundamental analysis and valuation metrics. It minimizes risks and builds confidence by uncovering intrinsic value and market dynamics. In trading, preparation and understanding always outweigh speculation, making research an essential step for achieving consistent success.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Crypto Gaining Momentum: $TRUMP coin launch and Bitcoin’s potential strategic reserve boost market attention and legitimacy.
AI Momentum: The unstoppable growth of AI-driven innovation continues, unaffected by broader market trends.
THE BAD:
Stubborn Inflation: Macroeconomic conditions remain strained, impacting central bank policies.
Jobs in Flux: Uncertain employment data keeps sentiment cautious.
Market Polarization: Crypto insiders profiting from hyped launches hurt investor confidence and liquidity in the overall market.
THE UGLY:
Global Trade Jitters: Tariff threats heighten geopolitical tension, affecting markets unpredictably.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter:
📈 Week 24, Trade 24 : LONG $BTC & $VIRTUAL WITH $BTC Options Entry Trigger
Last weekend before Donald Trump's swearing-in ceremony, the market witnessed a peculiar shift, driven by the explosive activity surrounding the $TRUMP memecoin. Despite its speculative rise and the accompanying liquidity injection, there was an absence of any official commentary on crypto policy in the actual swearing-in speech, leaving traders uncertain about the broader market direction. This lack of clarity serves as both a challenge and a catalyst, making it difficult to pinpoint the narrative or segment that will drive the next leg of the bull market.
While the overall market sentiment leaning bullish, the sector leader for the upcoming cycle remains unclear. The recent announcement of Stargate has provided some hints that the AI sector and its adjacent markets could be the next dominant theme. However, it is still early to develop full conviction, given the evolving nature of narratives in the crypto space.
We maintain a cautiously bullish outlook on the broader market and are positioning ourselves to capitalize on potential upside. At the same time, we are mindful of risks, employing robust hedging strategies to protect against unforeseen market downturns. As the market narrative matures, we’ll continue to adjust our strategy to align with emerging trends while staying opportunistic yet measured in our approach.
Below, you’ll find a detailed breakdown of the latest trades and how they align with our overall strategy:
TRADE 1: Long $BTC Spot
Bitcoin's recent price movement provided opportunities to accumulate at key support levels, aligning with our long-term bullish outlook. We structured our entries as follows:
Entry Price 1: $95,000
Limit Order 1: $95,000
Limit Order 2: $90,000
Stop Loss: $85,000
Take Profit:
Target 1: $130,000.
Target 2: $150,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $104K showing strength after bouncing from support levels. Our conviction remains strong as $BTC approaches new all time high.
This strategy allows for disciplined accumulation at critical price points while mitigating downside risk with a tight stop-loss. As macro conditions evolve, we expect bullish momentum to build, pushing Bitcoin toward our profit targets. Stay tuned for updates as we actively manage this trade.
TRADE 2: Long $VIRTUAL Spot
$VIRTUAL is currently trading at $2.60, but we’ve placed a limit order at $2.40, targeting a strong support level for entry.
Trade Details:
Entry Trigger : $2.40
Take Profit: $6.50
Stop Loss: $2.00`
TRADE 3: BTC Call Options for 28th March – Current Spot @ $104K
We have set up limit orders for BTC call options at a strike price of $105K, capitalizing on Bitcoin’s bullish momentum and expecting it to break above this key level by the end of March.
Option Details:
Strike Price: $105,000
Option Premium (Limit Orders):
5 BTC @ 0.09 BTC
5 BTC @ 0.07 BTC
Expiration Date: 28th March 2025
Risk and Reward
Risk:
The primary risk lies in Bitcoin failing to breach the $105K level by expiration, causing the options to expire worthless.
Reward:
If Bitcoin surpasses $105K and sustains momentum, these positions can yield substantial returns.
💡 CONCLUSION
In this week’s trade recap, we’ve focused on high-conviction plays across Bitcoin and Altcoins, leveraging strong support levels and favorable options setups to position for substantial upside.
Trade Highlights:
Long $BTC Spot: Accumulating at $95K–$90K levels, targeting $130K and $150K, with a disciplined stop-loss at $85K.
Long $VIRTUALS Spot: Limit order placed at $2.40, aiming for a recovery to $6.50 with a stop-loss at $2.00.
BTC Call Options (Strike: $105K): Limit orders at 0.09 BTC and 0.07 BTC, targeting Bitcoin’s upward breakout, expiring on 28th March 2025.
We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, expecting strong momentum across these positions. These trades offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, balanced by robust stop-loss levels and option-based strategies.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights! You can track all our trades here.
Now go grab a coffee and please DM for any questions. Keep in mind, this is NFA and DYOR.
My 2025 Crypto Plan - Lessons, Positions and Sizing
January edition, updated as we go…
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