Week 16, Trade 16 : Long $BTC, $SOL, $TAO & $WIF
Doubling Down on High-Conviction Trades After Last Week's Pullback
📈 Week 16, Lesson 16
“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.” Jim Rogers
We are into Week 16 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
What an Uptober it was! We smashed through 60% returns this month, significantly outperforming the market, with BTC and SOL delivering just over 10%, while ETH lagged with another negative month.
Our two biggest winners were high-conviction memecoins $GOAT and $MORUD. Our swift execution—getting in and out at the perfect moments—gave us a massive boost. If you don’t want to miss out on these moves, be sure to join our Telegram group for real-time updates.
Since inception, we’ve now achieved over 170% returns, which annualizes to 519%. The best part is still ahead as last week’s volatility hit many of our entry triggers. Now, we’re deploying capital strategically, setting up for what we expect to be a strong post-election rally.
Before diving into this week’s trade, let’s take a closer look at our current open positions:
Trade 1: $BTC Options – Buy Call, Sell Put
Status: Holding the Call and Squared Off the Put
P&L: Paid a net premium of $1.7K, and the option’s current value is $7,639, yielding a profit of almost $6K. With Bitcoin nearing all-time highs, we plan to hold this trade through year-end.
Trade 2: $BTC Options – Buy & Sell Call, Sell Put
Status: Holding
P&L: This trade had zero upfront cost (net premium is zero) and could return $7K if BTC remains above $70K. Currently, we’re up $5.8K, with close monitoring in place as it expires next month.
Trade 3: Spot $FTM
Status: Holding 100%
P&L: After a brief market pullback, $FTM is still ranging between $0.60 & $.070, putting us up 3% on the trade.
Trade 4: Spot $SOL
Status: Holding 100%
P&L: We’re seeing solid gains, with $SOL now trading above $170, up 20%. We’ve increased our stop-loss to the entry price of $150
Trade 5: $SOL Options – Buy & Sell Call, Sell Put
Status: Holding
P&L: This trade had no upfront cost (net premium is zero), with $SOL exceeding $180, we are sitting on unrealized profits of over $11K. More detailed calculations can been seen in our sheet.
Trade 6: $ETH Options – Buy & Sell Call, Sell Put
Status: Holding
P&L: Similar structure to the $SOL options trade, but with $ETH’s price stagnating, we’re currently at breakeven. Expiry is in a week, and we’re watching closely for potential adjustments.
Trade 7: $SOL Algorithmic Yields
Status: Hold 100%
P&L: We’ve been providing liquidity via Orca LP Pools on $SOL, generating 7% returns over the last 3 weeks.
Trade 8: Spot $GOAT
Status: Holding 100%
P&L: After exiting early on our first trade, we re-entered GOAT with increased conviction. Since then, we’re up 80%, reaffirming our belief in the AI memecoin narrative.
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Market Stability Returns: After a week of volatility, markets are beginning to stabilize.
UK gilt yields are expected to decline further due to weaker growth prospects, leaving more room for Bank of England rate cuts compared to the Federal Reserve.
THE BAD:
U.S. Budget Deficits Worsen: The U.S. budget deficit shows no signs of slowing, increasing demand for higher term premiums on long-term bonds and putting more pressure on the broader economic outlook.
THE WORSE:
Israel Escalates Regional Tensions: Israel issued a stern warning to Hezbollah’s new leader amidst rising violence.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 16, Trade 16: LONG $BTC, $SOL, TAO 0.00%↑ & $WIF
As mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the macroeconomic landscape continues to show signs of being highly conducive to a significant market rally. However, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections remains a looming factor. Last week’s pullback offered some excellent entry points, and we’ve closely tracked the market, taking positions when assets approached our target prices.
This week, we capitalized on several of our watchlist entries. Below is a breakdown of our latest trades:
TRADE 1 - Long $BTC Spot
Following the market’s recent pullback, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $65,608, creating an attractive entry opportunity. We took advantage of this dip and entered at:
Entry Price 1: $65,750
Entry Price 2: $67,450
Average Entry Price: $66,600
Stop Loss: $67,000
Take Profit: $80,000
Since our entry, BTC has surged back above $70K. While the election-induced volatility could affect the market, we’ve kept our stop-loss at our entry price.
TRADE 2: Long $SOL Spot
After some minor consolidation, Solana touched $160, which was one of our target prices. We entered as follows:
Entry Price 1: $160
Entry Price 2: $165
Average Entry Price: $162.50
Stop Loss: $162.50
Take Profit: $200
With Solana now trading around $170, our position is already in profit. We remain bullish on SOL’s potential for a continued upward move, but our stop-loss discipline is in place should market volatility increase.
TRADE 3: Long $TAO Spot
Our conviction in $TAO remains strong, and the market pullback last week allowed us to execute a staggered accumulation strategy. We initiated the following trades:
Entry Price 1: $500
Entry Price 2: $479
Average Entry Price: $489.5
Stop Loss: $450
Take Profit: $600
As TAO hovers around the $480-$500 mark, we’re watching closely for a breakout. With solid support at these levels, our focus is on accumulating and waiting for the next leg higher.
TRADE 5: Long $WIF Spot
We initiated a position in WIF after seeing it touch our target of $2.20:
Entry Price: $2.28
Stop Loss: $2.00
Take Profit: $3.00
Currently trading around $2.30, WIF has shown resilience, and we’re anticipating further gains as the market moves towards more risk-on sentiment post-elections.
All the trades executed this week were based on our carefully curated watchlist, focusing on the assets we have the highest conviction in—$BTC, $SOL and $WIF. We've previously shared individual blogs detailing the rationale behind each of these trades, which reflects our strong, consistent belief in their potential.
Moreover, with AI being the dominant narrative of this cycle, $TAO, as a leader in the space, stands out as one of our top conviction plays. Our position in $TAO aligns with our broader strategy of capturing long-term value in sectors where market momentum and innovation are converging.
While we executed some trades from our watchlist, we held off on others, anticipating a deeper pullback before the election. We proceeded cautiously, deploying less capital for the trades we did make. Here's where we've set our entry triggers for the remaining assets:
💡 CONCLUSION
As we approach the election period, the market remains a mix of opportunity and uncertainty. We’ve positioned ourselves strategically across several assets, including $BTC, $SOL, $TAO, and $WIF, and adjusted our stop-losses accordingly to mitigate risk. Our goal remains to deploy capital smartly and manage trades with discipline, ensuring we’re ready to capture further upside post-elections.
Stay tuned for more updates as we continue navigating this volatile but promising market.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights!
You can track all our trades here.
Now go grab a coffee and please DM for any questions. Keep in mind, this is NFA and DYOR.
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