Week 39, Trade 39 : LONG $BTC, $HYPE & $SOL
📈 Week 39, Lesson 39
"The purpose of trading is not to be right, but to make money." – Marty Schwartz
We are into Week 39 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
LET YOUR WINNERS RUN & CUT YOUR LOSERS QUICKLY
A key principle of profitable trading is mastering the art of letting winners run and cutting losers early. Many traders do the opposite—closing winning trades too soon out of fear and holding onto losing trades hoping they'll recover. This behavior erodes profits and magnifies losses. The solution? Let your edge work by maximizing upside potential and minimizing downside risk.
Successful traders don’t aim to be right all the time—they aim to make more when they're right than they lose when they're wrong. Cutting losers quickly with well-placed stop-losses protects your capital, while trailing stop-losses or scaling out of strong positions allows your winners to grow. This principle is rooted in risk-reward discipline and is essential for compounding gains over time.
How to Apply This Principle Effectively:
Set Stop-Losses: Determine your risk before entering a trade and set stop-loss orders to protect your capital if the market moves against you.
Use Trailing Stop-Losses: As the trade moves in your favor, adjust your stop-loss to lock in profits while allowing the position to continue growing.
Scale Out of Winning Positions: Take partial profits as the trade progresses, reducing risk and securing gains while still participating in the trend.
Avoid Emotional Decisions: Stick to your plan. Don’t let fear or greed influence your trades.
Review and Adjust: Regularly evaluate your trades and adjust your approach to improve decision-making.
In the long run, a few strong trades can make your month—but only if you let them. Train yourself to ride the winners and dump the losers. That’s how professionals build consistency and avoid death by a thousand cuts..
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Global indexes on fire: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all rallied ~3% this week as trade optimism and strong earnings boosted risk appetite. Tech and industrials led the charge.
Jobs data crushes expectations: U.S. added 177K jobs in April (vs. 133K est). Steady employment and wage growth (+3.8% YoY) eased recession fears and fuelled equities.
Crypto pops off: Bitcoin topped $100K, Ethereum spiked 16% on a major upgrade, and altcoins followed suit.
Trade hope lifts markets: Trump’s “historic” UK trade framework cheered investors. Boeing soared on a $12B order, and global indexes followed the momentum.
Volatility fades: The VIX dropped ~4.5% as traders embraced risk. Call-option activity surged and fear was nowhere to be seen.
THE BAD:
Trade deal ≠ done deal – Trump’s UK move is just a framework; no real action with China yet. Ford warned tariffs could bite profits—markets noticed.
Mixed earnings signals – Apple flagged $900M in new tariff costs, Coinbase missed on profit, and Affirm’s weak guidance rattled fintech names.
No rate cuts just yet – Fed held firm, citing sticky inflation and trade risks. Even after a BoE cut, central banks signaled caution—not easing..
THE WORSE:
Asia flashpoints return – India–Pakistan skirmishes and North Korean missile tests raised regional alarm bells. Asian markets treaded carefully.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 39, Trade 39 : $BTC, $HYPE & $SOL
As highlighted in our last update, the market was in a fragile spot—balancing a hawkish FOMC against optimism around global trade deals. The UK tariff announcement and potential China breakthrough quickly flipped sentiment, leading to a strong bullish breakout.
Since then, momentum has been solid across the board, but we believe the rally is showing signs of exhaustion. Markets feel overextended in the short term, and a healthy pullback looks increasingly likely. That’s why we’re booking profits here and shifting focus to redeploying at better levels.
We’re not bearish—just positioning with discipline. Keep funds ready. The next dip could offer great opportunities to reload from our watchlist.
The Trades of the Week:
1. $BTC
Sell: Above $104,000
Re-accumulation Zone: $92,000 – $89,000
Bitcoin broke into the high-$100Ks on improving global sentiment, but technicals now point to short-term exhaustion. We expect a pullback into the low-$90Ks, where we'll look to reload. The $92K–$89K range offers a high-conviction zone to accumulate ahead of the next macro leg up.
2. $SOL
Sell: Above $160
Re-accumulation Zone: $120 – $135
Solana surged above $170 but is now showing signs of topping with broader market fatigue. We are targeting the $120–$135 zone to re-enter. This support range has historically been strong and aligns with Solana's trend structure.
3. $HYPE
Sell: Above $24
Re-accumulation Zone: $15- $18
We’ve exited our $HYPE position above $24 following an extended rally. Meme tokens tend to correct fast, and we’re now targeting $15–$18 for buybacks. This zone offers a more favorable risk-reward setup in anticipation of the next leg up.
And with this, our core focus for re-accumulation remains centered on $BTC, $SOL, and $HYPE—names we've actively traded and are looking to reload as the market cools off. However, given the strength and breadth of the recent rally, we’re expanding our radar. As the market pulls back, we’re closely monitoring a secondary watchlist and plan to place bids on:
$TAO
$PEPE
$VIRTUALS
$KAITO
These tokens have shown promising setups and relative strength, and we’ll be looking for ideal entry zones once volatility resets..
💡 CONCLUSION
The current market environment continues to walk a fine line between sustained bullish momentum and the likelihood of a near-term correction. While recent optimism driven by global trade developments has pushed prices higher, overextended conditions and a crowded long trade setup suggest caution in the short term. With macro uncertainty still in play, particularly around China-U.S. trade discussions and ongoing rate policy expectations, the next few weeks could bring increased volatility.
Our approach remains rooted in tactical risk management—taking profits into strength and preparing to re-enter at technically strong support zones. This strategy allows us to stay engaged with market upside while preserving capital to redeploy when opportunities realign.
Strategic Trade Levels:
$BTC:
Profit booking: Above $104,000
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $92,000
$SOL:
Profit booking: Above $160
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $140
$HYPE:
Profit booking: Above $24
Reaccumulation Zone: Below $18
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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