Week 35, Trade 35 : $HYPE, $FARTCOIN & $XRP
📈 Week 35, Lesson 35
I always say that you could publish my trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline." – Richard Dennis
We are into Week 35 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE ROLE OF MARKET CONDITIONS IN STRATEGY SELECTION
Not all market conditions are created equal—and neither are trading strategies. One of the most crucial lessons traders learn (sometimes the hard way) is that a strategy that works well in one market environment may completely fail in another. Understanding whether the market is trending, ranging, volatile, or flat is key to choosing the right approach and protecting your capital.
For example, trend-following strategies thrive in strong directional moves but get chopped up in sideways markets. On the flip side, mean-reversion or range-bound strategies perform best when prices are bouncing between support and resistance levels. Trading without assessing the market’s current condition is like using a snowmobile in the desert—you have the wrong tool for the job.
How to Align Strategy With Market Conditions:
Identify Market Structure: Use tools like moving averages, trendlines, and price action to determine if the market is trending or ranging.
Measure Volatility: Use indicators like Average True Range (ATR) to gauge how much the market is moving and adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels accordingly.
Adapt or Sit Out: If your strategy doesn’t fit the current environment, either switch to a more suitable one or stay on the sidelines.
Backtest Across Conditions: Ensure your strategy has been tested in different environments so you know when it performs best.
Great traders aren’t just good at strategy—they’re good at recognizing when to use it. Market awareness gives your strategy context, helping you filter out bad setups and capitalize when conditions are right.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Tariff Pause For 90- Days: Tariffs on all countries are paused by the USA, except China.
Local Industry Boost: Domestic re-investment likely as sectors adapt to 20% EU and 34%+ China tariffs, boosting local production and supply chain diversification.
THE BAD:
Market Shockwaves: The S&P 500 erased half of its historic 10%+ surge following the tariff pause announcement, dropping 5.4% the very next day, while Brent crude plunged 6.4% amid renewed tariff shocks.
Rising Cost Pressures: Inflation risk rises as tariffs (up to 74% for China) and complex trade measures drive up costs, intensifying global trade frictions.
THE WORSE:
Retaliation Spiral: Escalating retaliatory measures: China raises tariffs by 125%, U.S. may respond with 145%, risking an all-out trade war.
Global Recession Risks: Compounded tariffs could spark recession-like downturns, disrupting global supply chains and curbing consumer spending across markets.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 35, Trade 35 : $HYPE, $FARTCOIN & $XRP
President Trump’s 90-day suspension on most global tariffs has triggered a powerful rally across global markets, with the S&P 500 surging over 9% and the Nasdaq spiking more than 12% — one of the strongest single-day moves in recent memory. This rebound was followed by period of intense volatility, where markets plunged the very next day due to escalating trade tensions. The temporary tariff halt is perceived as a strategic move to alleviate market fears and potentially pave the way for more favorable trade negotiations.
Looking ahead, any significant down moves in strong assets should be viewed as buying opportunities, especially as the broader backdrop turns more accommodative. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 4.25%-4.5% in March extends its cautious pause since January, but with market volatility rising and economic uncertainty growing, there’s now a higher probability that rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected.
This potential policy shift, combined with reduced trade friction, could offer tailwinds for risk assets. The setup going forward favors tactical accumulation on dips and disciplined profit-taking near resistance — a trader’s market, with asymmetric upside for those positioned well.
To give you an example of one of our most recent trades, the market bounce created a textbook opportunity to lock in gains. As outlined in our previous newsletter, we had been patiently accumulating Fartcoin around the $0.35 level. Our limit orders were filled right on target, and the rally that followed allowed us to close the trade with a full 100% profit. We exited 50% of our position at predefined resistance levels — once again reaffirming our approach of buying into weakness and selling into strength.
With that momentum behind us, let’s turn to the key trade opportunities we’re tracking this week:
1. LONG $HYPE:
Entry Price: $11.20
Target: $20
Rationale: HYPE has proven its strength by holding firm around the $10 level even after the recent tariff announcements spooked broader markets. After spotting early signs of accumulation, we began building our position near $11. If momentum continues, a breakout toward $20 looks well within reach.
2. LONG $FARTCOIN:
Entry Orders: Limit orders positioned at $0.55 and $0.45
Stop Loss: $0.25
Take Profit Levels: Targets at $0.85 and $1 to exploit possible price recoveries.
Rationale: FARTCOIN recently broke below the $0.55 support during a market-wide pullback. But we’re not panicking—we’re leaning into it. Our plan is to accumulate around the $0.45–$0.55 zone, expecting a strong bounce once sentiment stabilizes. If the recovery plays out, we’re eyeing exits at $0.85 and $1.
3. LONG $XRP:
Entry Orders: Limit orders positioned at $1.75 and $1.65
Stop Loss: $1
Take Profit Levels: Targets at $2.50 and $3
Rationale: Among the so-called “dino coins,” XRP has surprised many by outperforming even during choppy conditions. It's consistently demonstrated strength and relative resilience. We're looking to accumulate around key support levels for a potential run toward $3.
💡 CONCLUSION
In this week’s trade recap, we’re going Long on $HYPE & Limit Orders on $XRP & $FARTCOIN.
Trade Highlights:
Long $HYPE Spot: Entered at $11.20 and staked it to earn additional rewards
Limit Entry $FARTCOIN Spot: Orders positioned at $0.55 and $0.45
Limit Entry $XRP Spot: Orders positioned at $1.75 and $1.65
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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