Week 32, Trade 32 : SELL ON BOUNCE & ACCUMULATE NEAR SUPPORT
📈 Week 32, Lesson 32
"It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong." – George Soros
We are into Week 32 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADE CONFIRMATION SIGNALS
Entering a trade without confirmation is like jumping into a river without checking the current—you might get lucky, but the odds aren’t in your favor. Trade confirmation signals help traders validate their setups before committing capital, reducing the chances of false breakouts, trend reversals, or unnecessary losses.
Instead of acting on a single indicator or pattern, professional traders wait for multiple confluences to align before taking a position. For example, if you're considering a long trade on a stock, you might wait for price action to confirm support, a bullish candlestick pattern, and an increase in volume before entering. This extra validation improves the probability of success.
How to Use Trade Confirmation Signals Effectively:
Combine Indicators – Use moving averages, RSI, MACD, or volume to confirm trend direction before entering.
Look for Price Action Signals – Patterns like engulfing candles, pin bars, or breakouts provide strong confirmation.
Check Market Context – Align your trade with broader trends, support/resistance levels, and overall market sentiment.
Avoid Acting on a Single Signal – Just because RSI is oversold doesn’t mean the price will bounce; wait for additional confirmations.
By waiting for confirmation, traders increase their win rate and reduce unnecessary losses. The best trades aren’t rushed—they are planned, validated, and executed with confidence. Patience leads to profits.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Cooling Inflation Provides Relief – CPI inflation came in lower than expected at 2.8%, supporting a case for a potential rate cut later in 2025. However, the Fed is unlikely to move until there’s a clear trend.
Europe’s Defense Spending Boosts Markets – Germany’s new €500 billion infrastructure fund and EU-wide military investment have provided some stability, particularly for European equities.
THE BAD:
Tariffs Set to Hit in April – The full effect of Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China will be felt soon, potentially driving up inflation and disrupting supply chains.
AI Rivalry Heats Up – The U.S. - China AI race is intensifying, with China pushing open-source models like DeepSeek while the U.S. grapples with regulatory uncertainty
THE WORSE:
Market Sentiment Nears Panic Mode – High volatility, ETF outflows, and deteriorating liquidity indicate that investors are bracing for more pain ahead.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 32, Trade 32 : SELL ON BOUNCE & ACCUMULATE NEAR SUPPORT
Following the recent FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech, the crypto market experienced an upward move. However, despite this temporary boost, there is no clear fundamental catalyst signaling a sustained bullish trend. Powell’s remarks suggest that while inflation remains a concern—partly due to tariffs—the Fed is slowing its quantitative tightening (QT). While this provided short-term relief to risk assets, including crypto, it does not represent a significant shift in monetary policy that would justify a prolonged rally.
Given the lack of a strong bullish narrative, we believe the market currently has limited upside potential. This presents an opportunity to sell into strength and reaccumulate at lower levels. Our strategy revolves around capitalizing on market inefficiencies by taking profits at key resistance levels and re-entering positions once the market corrects.
Strategic Trade Levels:
$SOL – Take profits above $150, with a re-entry target between $110-$120
$BTC – Sell positions above $90K, and look to reaccumulate under $78K range
$HYPE – Sell around $20-$25, and buy back under $13
While the market remains reactive to macroeconomic events, we remain cautious in chasing the recent rally. The lack of a substantial positive shift means that taking profits on strength and waiting for better re-entry points is the most prudent approach. Stay patient, stay tactical, and execute with discipline.
💡 CONCLUSION
In light of recent market dynamics, our strategic approach has been validated, underscoring the importance of disciplined trading and adaptability. The recent FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks provided a temporary boost to the crypto market. However, the absence of a clear, sustained bullish catalyst suggests that the market's upside potential remains constrained. This scenario reinforces our strategy of selling into strength and reaccumulating at lower levels, effectively capitalizing on market inefficiencies.
Our tactical execution involved taking profits at key resistance levels and setting re-entry points to optimize our positions
$SOL – Take profits above $150, with a re-entry target between $110-$120
$BTC – Sell positions above $90K, and look to reaccumulate under $78K range
$HYPE – Sell around $20-$25, and buy back under $13
By adhering to this disciplined approach, we aim to optimize our portfolio's performance, balancing risk and reward effectively. As the market continues to react to macroeconomic events, maintaining a cautious yet opportunistic stance is crucial. We remain committed to executing our strategy with precision, ensuring that we are well-positioned to capitalize on future market developments.
Stay tuned for further updates, and remember—NFA (Not Financial Advice), always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before making investment decisions! You can track all our trades here.
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