Week 29, Trade 29 : LONG $SOL, $BTC, & $HYPE
📈 Week 29, Lesson 29
"The market doesn’t know you own a position." – Joel Greenblatt
We are into Week 29 of the Fifty Two Trades in Fifty Two Weeks. Thank you for reading.
“The 52” deep dives into one trade every week, targeting traders with zero or little trading experience. But I hope that my pro trader friends find this as useful. For details on why I am doing this and who is this for, please read the About section on top, which I will update from time to time.
Most trades that we take will be medium (3-4 weeks) to long term in nature. We might do some swing trading here and there if opportunity presents, but always with proper risk management. After all, our purpose is to make money, not lose sleep over it.
You can track our trades and progress live here at this Link
Over 10 years in banking and now 12+ years dealing with nuances of crypto, I have learned some very hard lessons. I intend to share them transparently as we go. More importantly, please keep the comments and feedback coming, so I know we are on the right track together.
📊 Portfolio Update - Open Trades
We continue to navigate the market cautiously, balancing between risk and reward. Stay tuned for more updates as we adjust our positions based on market conditions.We’ll continue to monitor the open positions closely and adjust as needed to navigate the range-bound market effectively. Stay connected on Telegram for real-time updates and insights.
If you have any questions, ideas, or feedback, please feel free to DM me on Substack or Twitter, Let's continue to navigate the market together!
THE POWER OF TREND FOLLOWING
One of the simplest yet most effective trading strategies is trend following—the idea that markets tend to move in sustained directions, either up or down, for extended periods. The famous saying "The trend is your friend" reminds traders that going with the market flow, rather than fighting it, often leads to higher-probability trades and more consistent results.
Trends form due to collective market sentiment, driven by factors like economic data, company earnings, or geopolitical events. By identifying and trading in the direction of the trend, traders can ride strong price movements instead of getting caught in choppy, counter-trend trades. Momentum tends to attract more momentum, so even joining a trend late can still present profitable opportunities if managed well.
How to Trade with the Trend
Identify the Trend – Use tools like moving averages, trendlines, or indicators like the MACD to determine the market direction.
Wait for Pullbacks – Instead of jumping in blindly, wait for price retracements to key support or resistance levels to enter with better risk-to-reward.
Use a Trailing Stop-Loss – Lock in profits by trailing your stop as the trend progresses, allowing you to capture larger moves without exiting too early.
Avoid Counter-Trend Trades – While counter-trend setups can work for short-term scalps, they carry higher risk and often go against the broader market momentum.
Trend following teaches traders to be patient and let winning trades run, capturing larger profits while cutting losers quickly. By mastering this strategy, you align yourself with the natural rhythm of the market and give yourself an edge by trading with the flow—not against it.
🌎 Quick Macro & Crypto TL;DR
THE GOOD:
Risk-On Alignment: Tariff proposals and anticipated rate cuts are setting the stage for a long-term risk-on environment, with market participants eyeing undervalued European and Chinese equities.
Macro Stability Hints: Despite CPI ticking up, the impact is being muted by expected federal DOGE cuts, which may help temper inflation pressures over time.
THE BAD:
Consumer & Corporate Costs: Including potential 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors - continue to create confusion, risk higher input costs, and may disrupt integrated supply chains, particularly in North America and among Japanese manufacturers.
Equity Market Impact: U.S. stocks are lagging Europe as investors remain wary of the inflationary and growth-dampening effects of tariff uncertainty, dragging down investor sentiment and overall market performance.
THE WORSE:
Crypto Breakdown Risk: Bitcoin fell below to $83K next meaningful support range being around $73K, it could trigger a broader collapse in the crypto bull market, shattering investor confidence and resetting the rally.
Persistent Macro Uncertainty: Continued ambiguity around Fed policy and global trade measures may compound inflationary pressures and labor market weaknesses, leading to a risk-off scenario that could unravel gains in stocks, bonds, and fiat currencies.
For more regular insights into macro and crypto trends, subscribe to our weekly newsletter: 5-Minute Macro and Crypto Weekly.
📈 Week 29, Trade 29 : LONG $SOL, $BTC & $HYPE
In the past week, the crypto market has experienced a noticeable correction, with the total market capitalization falling from $3.2T to $2.8T— a decline of about 10%. Nearly every coin has felt the pressure, with price drops ranging between 10% and 30%. Major cryptocurrencies such as $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL have been particularly affected, falling more sharply relative to several altcoins. Despite this broad-based downturn, investor sentiment on a long term horizon remains largely neutral to bullish.
Looking ahead, we remain cautiously optimistic that the market will rebound within the next three to six months. Our outlook is that this correction is temporary, providing a healthy entry point for reaccumulation. As investor sentiment stabilizes and technical support builds, we expect a significant upswing, paving the way for a robust recovery in the overall market.
Below, you’ll find a detailed breakdown of the latest trade and how it align with our overall strategy:
TRADE 1: BUY $SOL
Last week, we implemented a multi-entry strategy on Solana by placing limit orders at $150, with an executed order at $165. With the current price at $141, we’ve now added another executed order at $140, further lowering our average entry and enhancing our risk/reward profile.
Trade Parameters:
Previous Trade:
Limit Order: $150- Executed this week
Executed Order: $165
New Trade:
Executed Order: $140
Stop Loss: $100
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $220
TP2: $250
Rationale:
We remain bullish on Solana’s potential. The recent additional entry at $130 is a strategic move that improves our average cost, giving us a stronger position if the rebound materializes. With increased TVL, robust bridging activity, and growing interest on the Solana network. Our trade is designed to capture this recovery while maintaining disciplined risk management.
TRADE 2: LONG $BTC
Bitcoin is showing signs of consolidation near critical support levels, presenting a favorable entry opportunity. With the current price at $86K, we are strategically positioning ourselves by placing staggered limit orders to improve our average entry while capturing upward momentum. Our executed order at $85.5K reflects renewed buying interest, and our additional limit orders at $81K and $78K will help capture any short-term pullbacks, ultimately lowering our average cost.
Trade Setup:
Entry Orders:
Limit Order: $78K
Limit Order: $81K
Executed Order: $85.5K
Stop Loss: $70k
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $120K
TP2: $140K
Rationale:
BTC is currently trading in a consolidation phase near strong support levels, indicating potential for a rebound. Our multi-entry strategy is designed to average into the position during any short-term dips. The executed order at $85.5K confirms that the market is beginning to show signs of recovery. With our stop loss set at $70K, we maintain a disciplined risk profile, protecting our downside in case of a further breakdown. This trade embodies a high-conviction approach, balancing risk with the potential for steady gains in the near-term recovery of Bitcoin.
TRADE 3: LONG $HYPE
$HYPE has been showing promising recovery signals after a recent correction, and we’re positioning ourselves to capture its upside potential as momentum builds. With our strategy, we’re averaging in at attractive levels: a limit order at $15, another at $17, and a portion already executed at $19.5, while the current market price sits at $20.
Trade Setup:
Entry Orders:
Limit Order: $15
Limit Order: $17
Executed Order: $19.5
Stop Loss: $10
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $35
TP2: $50
Rationale:
By entering through staggered limit orders, we’re capturing $HYPE at lower prices to improve our average entry, while the executed order at $18 reflects positive market movement. Our risk is managed with a stop loss at $10, ensuring that we protect our capital if the trend reverses. With our targets set at $35, and $50, we’re positioned to benefit from a potential run-up as market sentiment shifts and buying interest strengthens. This trade reflects a high-conviction play on $HYPE, leveraging technical support and anticipated positive momentum.
💡 CONCLUSION
In this week's trade recap, we've strategically positioned ourselves to capitalize on potential rebounds in $BTC, $SOL and $HYPE, focusing on key support levels and favorable market conditions.
Trade Highlights:
Long $SOL Spot: We've enhanced our position with an executed order at $140, complementing previous entries at $150 and $165. Our take profit levels are $220, and $250, with a stop-loss set at $100.
Long $BTC Spot: We've executed a portion of our position at $85,569, with additional limit orders set at $81,000 and $78,000 to optimize our average entry. Our take profit targets are above the ATH.
Long $HYPE Spot: An initial order was executed at $19.5, complemented by limit orders at $15 and $17. Our take profit levels are $35, and $50, with a stop-loss set at $10.
We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on a 3-6 months horizon, anticipating strong momentum across these positions. These trades offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, balanced by robust stop-loss levels and strategic entry points.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights! You can track all our trades here.
Now go grab a coffee and please DM for any questions. Keep in mind, this is NFA and DYOR.
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